Minggu, 27 April 2014

Analysis





Everyone who wants to have more funds to grow the fund. How to make the fund growing assortment, one of them by investing in shares. Trade stocks are traded in the capital market, one of which is the Indonesian Stock Exchange ( BEI ). The capital market is a vehicle to bring together parties who require long-term funding with the parties that have the funds.
Investing in stocks trading are its advantages and disadvantages. Advantages of investing in stocks is the dividend payment ( part of the company's profits are distributed to investors ) and got a capital gain ( profit when trading in shares held ). In addition to the advantages, there are also disadvantages , which do not get the dividend ( the company does not make a profit ), a capital loss ( a loss when trading stock ) , the company in liquidation .

Return the result can be expected in the future of investment and to get it will usually be accompanied by a wide range of risks . The concept provides an easy way for investors serving the financial performance of an investment . The analysis used to determine the level of return and risk in this case is to calculate the rate of return and market share .
Calculating the rate of return to get the return value means and knowing the right time . Here's how to measure the level of stock returns :
Description: index.jpg

In this way, the calculation of the level of stock returns Hotel Sahid Jaya International (SHID) period January, 2nd 2010 until March 21, 2014 gave results fluctuate. Performance of the company should also be compared with the performance of the market, to see the cause of the existing movements. Market performance assessment by calculating the rate of return of the market (IHSG). The value of IHSG is affected by stock prices as well as external influence (government policy, oil world, etc..). IHSG also provide a benchmark for comparing stocks with the overall market and for the market compare with other economic indicators.
To calculate market return rate is not much different from the level of stock returns, use the following way:
Description: rumus return ihsg.png


Stock Return (Ri-SHID)
Market Return (Rm-IHSG)
Average
0.0336%
0.6659%
STDEV
3.4097%
1.2579%

The table above contains the average value and standard deviation of stock returns of Hotel Sahid Jaya International , and IHSG. The stock return of Hotel Sahid Jaya International is lower than the market return. On average, investors do not get back the initial value invested (loss).
When we expect a great rate of return , then we also need to be ready to face the big risk . Return and risk relationship is positive, when the return is high then the risk is also high .
The main desire of the investor is to minimize risk and maximize profits. Generally, individual investors are rational people who do not like risk, so that investment risk should be able to offer a high rate ( high risk high return ) . Therefore, investors need information about the risks and returns desired .
To see the level of risk and rate of return to be obtained can be seen in various ways , such as financial reports , market conditions , past price and so forth . Equilibrium model will help the understanding of how to determine the relevant risk of an asset , as well as the relationship of risk and expected return for an asset when the market is in equilibrium . Capital Asset Pricing Model ( CAPM ) tries to explain the relationship between risk and return in a more simple and just use one variable ( variable beta ) .
Beta is a measure of volatility (rate of change) a return to the stock market return. Beta value calculation is done by using regression analysis. Basically the standard market beta value is 1, the movement of the stock will be affected by market movements. Beta value of 1 indicates that the change in the market return of x% will affect the movement of a stock by x% as well.
A stock that has a beta value above 1, meaning the stock has a volatility (rate of change) on top of the market and a beta value above 1 means high beta stocks. High beta stocks showed a level of risk that stocks with high levels of high return as well, because the level of risk goes in line with the rate of return. Vice versa, a stock that has a beta value below 1, meaning the stock has a volatility (rate of change) in the bottom of the market and a beta value below 1 means a low beta shares. Low beta stocks showed a stock level of risk is low and the rate of return is low.
 High-beta stocks are supposed to be riskier but provide a potential for higher returns; low-beta stocks pose less risk but also lower returns. In simple words, it can be written as:
-Beta = 1, the stock’s price will move with the market.
-Beta <> 1, the stock’s price will be more volatile than the market.
The calculations of regression give result of the value of the company stock’s beta.

Coefficients
Intercept
-7.30801E-05
X Variable 1 Beta
0.614327958

Beta using regression : 0.614327958
Based on the discussion of the theory of beta stock, we will analyze the level of risk in the stock PT Hotel Sahid Jaya International Tbk by looking at the beta stock risk of  PT Hotel Sahid Jaya International Tbk. The calculations were performed with the regression analyzes by the PT Hotel Sahid Jaya International Tbk stock returns and market returns, where the market return is based on  IHSG.  IHSG is an indicator of the whole movement of stock prices in the BEI. This calculation is deciding the relationship between the PT Hotel Sahid Jaya International Tbk’ stock and market return.

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