Conclusion

CONCLUSION

Ups and downs of the stock return is generally influenced by the rise and fall of stock prices . In trading on the stock exchange , it is influenced by global changes that make a change in the value of the stock return and market return . The changes in the value of stock returns Hotel Sahid Jaya International average positive value thus making the rate of profit or rate of return on capital Hotel Sahid Jaya International experiencing gain quite good.

On changes in the value of the overall stock index market return on average also is positive . This affects the change in the market shares of companies incorporated in the joint stock . This is evident from the change in the price of the stock return Hotel Sahid Jaya International that looks almost follow the movement of the stock price IHSG.

The standard deviation of the stock return Hotel Sahid Jaya International and IHSG market return has a high value of standard deviation of stock returns Hotel Sahid Jaya International, ICC of 3.4097% and the market return of 1.2579% JCI . That way both the returns have a high enough risk , it indicates the stock price volatility . With a standard deviation indicates the risk level of a company's stock so they can choose the stock of a company with a smaller level of risk

From the calculation of the regression of PT Hotel Sahid Jaya International Tbk stock returns, the number of beta is less than 1. It is indicating the level of fluctuations of PT Hotel Sahid Jaya International Tbk is lower than the stock market as a whole. Low beta coefficient means the stock price will be less volatile than the market. Stated that the stock level of PT Hotel Sahid Jaya International Tbk is in low fluctuations than the market.

Dividend Analysis (Efficient Market Hypothesis)

DIVIDEND (Using T-Test Paired Means-Efficient Market Hypothesis)

            According to the theory, there are different types of efficiency :

1.      The Weak Form

-Security prices reflect all information found in the past prices and volume.

-If the weak form of market efficiency holds, then the technical analysis is of no value.

-Since the stock prices only responds to the new information, which by definition arrives randomly, stock prices are said to follow random walk.

2.      The Semi Strong Form

-Security prices reflect all publicly avaiable information

-Publicly avaiable information includes :

            a. historical price and volume information

            b. published accounting statements

            c. information found in annual reports

3.      The Strong Form

-Security prices reflct all information-public and private

	Stock Price (Close) -10 before dividend payment	Stock price (+) 10 after dividend payment
Mean	337.5	307.8333333
Variance	37.5	15.76666667
Observations	6	6
Pearson Correlation	-0.226191933
Hypothesized Mean Difference	0
Df	5
t Stat	9.064659386
P(T<=t) one-tail	0.000136613
t Critical one-tail	2.015048372
P(T<=t) two-tail	0.000273225
t Critical two-tail	2.570581835

 

The table shows the result from T-test with α 0.05. We compare t-stat with t-critical :

T –stat > t-critical

9.064659386 > 2.570581835

If the t-stat is bigger than t-critical so it is mean that dividend payment affect the stock price, than we can conclude that the market has Semi Strong Form Efficiency because all publicly information can affect the stock price.